Canada E-Fuel Market Research Report, 2029

The Canada e-fuel market is an emerging sector focused on the production and utilization of electro-fuels, which are synthesized using renewable energy sources. This market is gaining traction as Canada aims to reduce its carbon footprint and transition towards sustainable energy solutions. E-fuels can play a vital role in decarbonizing hard-to-electrify sectors such as aviation and shipping, thereby addressing climate change while ensuring energy security. The Honourable Steven Guilbeault, Minister of Environment and Climate Change, announced the publication of the final Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR). The CFR set increasingly stringent requirements on producers and importers to reduce the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel. The Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) require producers and importers of gasoline and diesel (i.e. primary suppliers) to reduce the life cycle carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel used in Canada, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A life cycle approach accounts for emissions across all stages of fuel production and use, from extraction through processing, distribution, and end use. Reduction requirements for primary suppliers took effect as of July 1, 2023. The CFR are an important part of Canada’s climate plan to reduce emissions, accelerate the use of clean technologies and fuels, and support sustainable jobs in a diversified economy. Canada has substantial natural gas reserves and is considered a potential supplier for Europe, the envoy’s remarks indicate that the existing demand for gas could contract significantly over the next decade. This anticipated decline is coupled with Europe’s investment in infrastructure to support renewable energy, suggesting a shift in energy consumption patterns. In Canada, several key associations are pivotal to the e-fuel market. The Canadian Fuels Association (CFA) is the primary organization representing the petroleum refining, distribution, and marketing sector. The CFA advocates for policies that support the growth of low-carbon fuels, including e-fuels, and engages with government bodies to promote regulatory frameworks conducive to their development. According to the research report, "Canada E-Fuel Market Outlook, 2029," published by Actual Market Research, the Canada E-Fuel market is anticipated to add to more than USD 900 Million by 2024–29. One of the primary opportunities lies in the government's commitment to reducing carbon emissions through initiatives like the Clean Fuel Standard (CFS), which encourages the production and adoption of low-carbon fuels, including e-fuels. This regulatory framework not only incentivizes investments but also fosters innovation in e-fuel technologies. Moreover, as industries and consumers become more environmentally conscious, there is a growing market for cleaner alternatives to traditional fossil fuels. In Canada, ethanol remains the most widely used e-fuel, primarily utilized in the transportation sector. It is produced from renewable resources and serves as a direct substitute for gasoline. The e-gasoline segment is also gaining traction, particularly in regions like Ontario and Alberta, where there is a strong push for cleaner transportation fuels. E-diesel and e-methanol are emerging as viable options in heavy-duty transport and industrial applications. The provinces with significant agricultural activity, such as Saskatchewan and Manitoba, are particularly well-suited for ethanol production due to their abundant feedstock availability. Several factors contribute to the growth potential of the e-fuel market in Canada. Advancements in production technologies, such as electrolysis and carbon capture methods, enhance the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of e-fuel generation. Collaboration between government bodies, private companies, and research institutions is fostering an ecosystem conducive to innovation. For instance, partnerships aimed at developing infrastructure for e-fuel distribution are crucial for scaling up production capabilities. The increasing pressure on industries to meet stringent emission reduction targets presents a substantial opportunity for e-fuels to penetrate various sectors beyond transportation. The aviation industry is particularly notable; with growing interest in sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), e-fuels can significantly reduce the carbon footprint of air travel.

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E-kerosene is the market leader in the Canadian E-fuel market, which is also leading the competition in the market, developed as cleaner alternatives in the aviation industry. The huge share of carbon emissions is produced by the aviation sector, efforts for adopting such synthetic aviation fuels as E-kerosene helped the country realize its sustainability goals. Compatibility to use within already existing jet engines without any alteration has fueled further adoption of the E-kerosene. E-methanol is on the rise in Canada mainly because of its flexibility and suitability for use in marine transportation as well as in chemical industries. Moreover, e-methanol can be utilized to power fuel cells, making it a preferred fuel for firms seeking to reduce emissions as much as possible without compromising their operational efficiency. Its slightly lower production cost compared to others is also on the list, while the fact that renewable energy infrastructure is being developed in Canada is adding to its share of the market. E-diesel is a clean substitute for heavy-duty vehicles and industries relying on diesel engines, while E-gasoline could provide reductions in carbon emissions from passenger vehicles. These are both meeting steady demand as Canada transitions toward greener sources of energy. Other hydrocarbons include a range of synthetic fuels that are used in specific industrial applications. These fuels offer exclusive benefits to particular industries but have a smaller market share compared with E-kerosene and E-methanol. Hydrogen technology (Electrolysis) will lead in the Canada E-fuel market since it can make green hydrogen, a prime material for the production of synthetic fuels such as e-fuels. Electrolysis uses renewable energy resources such as wind or solar to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. Given Canada's vast renewable resources-including identified hydropower and many other sectors-electrolysis will follow a very sustainable and scalable path. While the Canadian government also focuses on decarbonizing energy-intensive sectors in transportation and industry using hydrogen technology, leading the leadership in the creation of e-fuel as this becomes a growing momentum; Reverse-Water-Gas-Shift converts carbon dioxide into carbon monoxide, which combines with hydrogen to form synthetic fuels. More and more RWGS is gaining speed in Canada because it offers a potential route to capture and make use of the generated CO2 emissions from industrial processes that would likely see the best prospects for carbon reductions in the country. As industrial operations continue to become the most carbon-capture-friendly, RWGS provides an opportunity to reduce emissions while producing valuable e-fuels. The Fischer-Tropsch process: The catalytic process of converting a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide into liquid hydrocarbons like synthetic diesel or kerosene. Although this route for e-fuel production in Canada dominated the traditional fuel-making process for quite some time, it has been relatively constant but less intense compared to its counterpart electrolysis. This route is highly suitable for large-scale production but demands massive infrastructure and investment, curtailing its broad application. Transportation is the largest market contributor in this respect in the Canadian e-fuel market, mainly because of the requirement for a reduction of carbon emissions in the industries of aviation, shipping, and road transport. E-fuels, specifically e-kerosene, e-diesel, and e-gasoline, are essentially direct drop-in alternatives to the standard fossil fuels, thus having the possibility of powering existing engines with minimal or no changes at all. This is largely the case with aviation, where e-kerosene is fast becoming a sustainable aviation fuel, minimizing carbon footprints. Its policies in favor of clean energy coupled with those pursued by the government to attain net-zero emissions in transportation have also positioned it at the forefront of this particular area. Industrial applications are going up sharply, as e-fuels also give a cleaner option for heavy machinery, manufacturing, and chemical production. In industries in which electrification is challenging, e-fuels are an attractive substitute to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. As Canada begins its journey of industrial decarbonization, sectors such as steel, cement, and heavy manufacturing are slowly adopting e-fuels in order to reduce carbon footprint, which in turn propels the growth in that segment. Power Generation, E-fuels can be utilized in gas turbines or backup power systems for cleaner power generation. Though lesser known to the public, especially in applications for transportation and industries, power generation with e-fuels is being explored for their integration potential with renewable energy systems and the provision of reliable, dispatchable power.

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Kripa Shah

Senior Analyst

Considered in this report • Historic year: 2018 • Base year: 2023 • Estimated year: 2024 • Forecast year: 2029 Aspects covered in this report • E-fuels market Outlook with its value and forecast along with its segments • Various drivers and challenges • On-going trends and developments • Top profiled companies • Strategic recommendation By End-use • Aviation • Marine • Industrial • Railway • Automotive • Others

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By Application • Transportation • Industrial • Power Generation • Others By Type of E-fuel • E-kerosene (Synthetic Aviation Fuel) • E-diesel • E-gasoline • E-methanol • Other Hydrocarbons By Technology • Hydrogen technology (Electrolysis) • Fischer-Tropsch • Reverse-Water-Gas-Shift (RWGS) The approach of the report: This report consists of a combined approach of primary and secondary research. Initially, secondary research was used to get an understanding of the market and list the companies that are present in it. The secondary research consists of third-party sources such as press releases, annual reports of companies, and government-generated reports and databases. After gathering the data from secondary sources, primary research was conducted by conducting telephone interviews with the leading players about how the market is functioning and then conducting trade calls with dealers and distributors of the market. Post this; we have started making primary calls to consumers by equally segmenting them in regional aspects, tier aspects, age group, and gender. Once we have primary data with us, we can start verifying the details obtained from secondary sources. Intended audience This report can be useful to industry consultants, manufacturers, suppliers, associations, and organizations related to the E-fuels industry, government bodies, and other stakeholders to align their market-centric strategies. In addition to marketing and presentations, it will also increase competitive knowledge about the industry. ?